Sunday, February 2, 2020

Interview with Ferdinando Nelli Feroci

President of the Istituto Affari Internazionali

Published in El Punt Avui newspaper on 2 February  2020 

http://www.elpuntavui.cat/politica/article/17-politica/1733454-ara-ve-la-part-mes-dificil-del-brexit.html


PROFILE

A diplomat from 1972 to 2013, Ferdinando Nelli was Permanent Representative of Italy to the European Union in Brussels (2008-13), Chief of Staff (2006-08) and Director General for European Integration (2004-06) at the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Previously, he served in New York at the UN, in Algiers, Paris and Beijing. European Comissioner in 2014. Formerly a Fellow at the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University (1985-86), he is currently a professor at the School of Government of LUISS, Rome, and the president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). He is the author of many articles and essays on international relations, European affairs and political affairs. 

Mr. Nelli attended the seminar "War and peace in the 21st century: A world of two or three? The US, China and the EU in a new global order", held in Barcelona on January 18, 2020


Headlines

"Paradoxically, and despite all the problems that it provoked in the UK, the easiest part of Brexit will be over on January 31stwith the entry into force of the Withdrawal Agreement. But now the most challenging part of Brexit is ahead of us"

"A good agreement with the UK, that should include not only trade and economic relations, but also security, foreign policy and defence, could help reduce the negative impact of Brexit"

"The EU should be able to exploit other successful common policies (like trade, environment, climate, energy, cyber-security) to improve and increase its role in the international scene."

"China does not represent for the time being a direct threat to our security. But there is no doubt that it is increasingly utilizing its economic weight to exercise political influence, as demonstrated by the Belt and Road Initiative"


Full version


A.B. - The UK is no longer an EU member. What will be the Brexit consequences for the EU? Is Brexit an opportunity for the EU to reinforce itself?
F.N. - Paradoxically, and despite all the problems that it provoked in the UK, the easiest part of Brexit will be over on January 31stwith the entry into force of the Withdrawal Agreement. But now the most challenging part of Brexit is ahead of us. The EU and the UK will have to agree on a new framework for their bilateral relations, once the UK will have become a third country (even though a very special third country).

If they will be capable of defining a comprehensive agreement that will constitute a solid basis for a friendly and collaborative relation, it will be possible to overcome all the negative consequences of Brexit. In a word I can hardly imagine Brexit as an opportunity for the EU. But at least there is a possibility for an effective “damage containment operation”. A good agreement with the UK, that should include not only trade and economic relations, but also security, foreign policy and defence, could help reduce the negative impact of Brexit.

A.B. - In your speech at Cidob's seminar you talked about an "underperforming EU". What internal reforms do you think the EU should undertake to become a major global power?
F.N. - The EU should improve the governance of its foreign and security policy through a more systematic use of the flexibility clauses that already exist, and through a more frequent use of the principle of differentiated integration (which would allow the involvement of limited groups of member States in specific initiatives or operations). The EU should also intensify the efforts already undertaken to develop, in cooperation with NATO, a credible common defence policy, and a credible common military capability for the management of regional crisis.

In the longer term it should also be possible to review the rule of unanimity for decisions in foreign policy. But more generally the EU should be able to exploit other successful common policies (like trade, environment, climate, energy, cyber-security) to improve and increase its role in the international scene.

A.B. - The European members are divided in their stance towards China and Russia. What approach would be more advisable? A more competitive or a more cooperative one?
F.N. - China and Russia are important players in the international scene with different characteristics. China is close to become the first economic power world wide, but still maintains certain aspects of a developing country. It does not represent for the time being a direct threat to our security. But there is no doubt that it is increasingly utilizing its economic weight to exercise political influence, as demonstrated by the Belt and Road Initiative.

Russia is economically relatively weak . But it has heavily invested in its military instruments, thus being able to play a role in world affair well beyond its economic dimension. It has recently violated fundamental rules of international law (first in in Georgia and late in Ukraine). But it has become a fundamental interlocutor for the search of solutions of some delicate regional crisis in the Mediterranean (like in Syria and in Libya).

With respect to both, China and Russia, the EU would a direct interests in trying to define a common position. But unfortunately this is proving not easy. Russia continues to be a very divisive subject among Europeans, for reasons that have to do with history, geography and economic interests. And China has so far been successful in its efforts to deal with individual member states on the basis of bilateral relations. A common European approach based on an appropriate mix of cooperation and competition is probably the best way to proceed in dealing with China and Russia.





Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Interview with Arkady Ostrovsky

Russia and Eastern Europe editor for 'The Economist'



Published in El Punt Avui newspaper on January 24, 2018


http://www.elpuntavui.cat/politica/article/17-politica/1326596-ja-ha-comencat-el-compte-enrere-per-succeir-putin.html




PROFILE

Arkady Ostrovsky is Russia and Eastern Europe editor for The Economist.  Prior to this role, he was the Moscow Bureau Chief for the Economist reporting on the annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine among many other subjects. He joined the paper in March 2007 after 10 years with the Financial Times where he covered Russian politics and business, including the Yukos Affair. His articles were among the first to warn of the resurgence of the security state under Putin. At The Economist, Arkady also writes about Russia-US relations, European security, Russia and China, Ukraine, Georgia and other former Soviet republics.

(Source: The Economist)


Mr. Ostrovsky attended the seminar "War and peace in the 21st century: What is Russia up to?", held in Barcelona on January 20, 2018





Headlines


"The clock has already started ticking in Russia; the elite in Moscow is already discussing Putin's succession"

"The frustration with the economic situation will build up and the regions and the big cities will demand for more autonomy; how the regional elites build their relationship with Moscow is going to be one very important factor"


"Putin is exploiting the problems that we have domestically, because there is populism growing and the populism is a result of a lot of the liberal elite not being able to really address the inequalities. So if we allow him to meddle, he will meddle; if we don't allow him to meddle, he won't meddle or they will meddle but they will not be succesful"


"I don't think Putin is going to take a more active role in Syria"


Full version




A.B. - What can we expect of Putin's next six-year term of office at the domestic level?
A.O. - I think Putin's key objective is going to be to stay in power but I think that it will also be the question of how he manages his succession. So it will not be about bringing in some change, political change or economic change. It is going to be about how to manage the succession and what happens at the end of this six-year term. So the clock will start ticking, has already started ticking in a way, and people in Moscow, the elite, is already discussing how this ends.

There will be a lot of crisis fighting. I think that three big issues will dominate the agenda. One is geopolitics, Russia's relationship with the West, how it is going to manage that because nobody really wants a big war in Russia or outside. Number two is economy. The economy is stagnating and people for now are still comparing the living standards with the 90s when they were much lower. But the further it gets away from that time and this generation changes they will have no memory of 90s: Putin has been in power for 18 years and will be in power for 24 years by the end of it, and that's more than one generation that grow up and all they know is Putin. So the comparison will weaken and they will start comparing the current position with the early 2000s when the incomes were growing by double digits. So the frustration with the economic situation will build up.

And then there is a question of domestic politics which consists of two parts. One is what happens within the elite and particularly what happens on the regional level, because Russia is a very large country, there are parts of the country where the economic development is very different; some it's complicated by the ethnic factor, so there is the Republic of Tatarstan, which is the largest Muslim republic in Russia, which is very rich actually and quite successful; there is Chechnya, which is totally different from anything else both politically, socially and religiously and there is a Far East which is where the influence of China is much greater. So how the regional elites build their relationship with Moscow is going to be one very important factor. 


And the second factor is called the street, the supporters of Alexei Navalny. Because Navalny, who is a opposition leader in Russia, he is not registered, he is been banned from standing for the elections but he's very important because he understands he's fighting Putin and he is already participating in the election in a way, but just differently, not through the ballot box but by trying to destroy Putin's legitimacy, by trying to undermine it and drive down his popularity, because he understands that as soon as Putin loses legitimacy, he will lose office as well.

A.B. - Do you fear a risk of a territorial disintegration of Russia in the middle-term?
A.O. - Yes, I do. The Soviet Union fell apart along the lines of the Republics. There were formal structures which the Soviet Union consisted of. Russia, internally, doesn't have those boundaries, those borders, it's not clear where one region ends and another one starts, but they are regions nevertheless. As I said Putin has centralised power to such a degree that the local elites feel quite aggrieved because there is a lot of money being taken from them, the tax relationships are not fair because money is being taken and not returned and Moscow is sucking out all the resources. But in terms of how this ends and the risks for a territorial disintegration I think they are very great.

A.B. - Which territories could more likely to push for a break-up?


A.O. - Well, Tatarstan will certainly feel that way, it will be the richer one actually, with their own elites; the Caucasus, for sure, but it also could be some Siberian cities, I mean there will be a drive to decentralisation. So, put it this way: I don't think everyone will come to say 'we are now independent' . I think that what might happen, and probably will happen, is the regions and the big cities will say 'we want more autonomy, we don't want to be apart from Russia; we want simply more autonomy and we want different tax relationships, more power politically and economically to make decisions'.


And then the question is how Moscow will respond to those demands because those demands contain different forms: they can be on the street. Now, if Moscow sends the police and it starts beating people up and killing, I don't have to tell you what happens afterwards: suddenly you move from 'we want more autonomy' into 'we want a referendum on independence'. I think a lot will depend on how they respond. If they start responding with violence, I think the chances for a break-up increase a lot.


A.B. - We see an authoritarian State in Russia but we hardly know about what is going on inside civil society? Is some kind of opposition movement growing underground?


A.O. - Yes. There are two things that are happening. One, there is a new generation coming and they want their chances. Putin's biggest problem, and the biggest challenge, is inability to talk about future. People have no prospects, they have no future for themselves, they are not going to live better than their parents, they are not sure that their children will live better than them. I mean, all these standard things in any country, in the United States or in Europe, are managed through an election, but in Russia you don't have that stabilising mechanism and people do want future, that is why the political process is now happening not within the Kremlin, not within the lines delineated by the Kremlin, but it's happening outside, it's happening on the street.

And the divide between large cities and provincial Russia is growing. People are educated, they are seeking oportunities, they don't want a war. So, yes, there's a lot happening and the society is getting quite radicalised as well because that is the dangerous thing is what they are doing: to stay in power, they talk about traditional values, Christian values, the Church, and a lot of them are quite obscurantist and the population is secular, modern, so they are radicalising both conservatives and the liberals also. I think the potential for conflict is growing.

A.B. - What about Russian meddling in Western democracies? Will we see the Kremlin keeping its interference on the incoming elections in Europe?
A.O. - It will depend only on one thing: how much do the Western societies where Putin meddles allow him to meddle. All the stuff doesn't work if we, the West, are strong and confident in ourselves, then this would not happen. He is exploiting the problems that we have domestically, internally, because there is populism growing and the populism is a result of a lot of the liberal elite not being able to really address the inequalities. So if we allow him to meddle, he will meddle; if we don't allow him to meddle, he won't meddle or they will meddle but they will not be succesful. The Soviets did it and it was not particularly succesful. He doesn't have a grand plan 'I will take this country or this other country', you know, he sees trouble in Barcelona, he has never thought about Catalonia before, but suddenly he thinks about Catalonia: 'what can we do there?' Because the objective is to weaken the Western liberal order and he's right to see it as a threat.

A.B. - Do you think that after the defeat of the rebels in Syria, Russia is going to take a more active role in the region?

A.O. - I don't think so. Well, they need to portray it as a success. Russia is not about state building, that's why it is fundamentally different from Americans in Iraq. When the responsability of building a state in Iraq proved impossible and unsuccesful it was seen as a failure. The Soviets did it after they tried to build up Afghanistan (they were not succesful either). Putin is not having going to try for as long as there is some sort of peace conference where he will present, you know, ' Russia has won' and his being part of it. Probably the only country which has any real appetite for doing anything in Syria it seems to me is Iran. And Putin is not even going to compete with Iran, he will be quite happy for as long as it is not the West, for as long he can show this is a humiliation of the West and the Iranians will do all the symbolic stuff, you know, including the Russians in the room and blow the trumpet.









































Friday, October 28, 2016

Interview with Baltasar Garzón

Spanish jurist

Published in El Punt Avui newspaper in October 21, 2016
http://www.elpuntavui.cat/politica/article/17-politica/1014792-baltasar-garzon-es-inadmissible-la-falta-de-dialeg-amb-catalunya.html






PROFILE

Baltasar Garzón (Torres, Jaén, 1955) is a Spanish judge. From the Audiencia Nacional, he has investigated major cases related to terrorism, organized crime, money laundering and crimes against humanity. He issued an arrest warrant against former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet and the members of Argentinian military juntas. In 1993 he went into politics as an independent candidate on the list of social democrat PSOE party, but resigned one year later from his post in Government. He has been convicted, then acquitted, for investigating the crimes of Francoism. In 2012 the Supreme Court convicted him of illegally wiretapping conversations between suspects in a major corruption inquiry (Gürtel case) and sentenced him to eleven years disqualification from judicial activity. Currently, he is the head of Julian Assange's legal team.

Mr. Garzón presented in Barcelona his book “En el punto de mira” (Planeta, 2016) about his professional experiences.



Full version (in Spanish)

“No puedo asumir tranquilamente cuatro años más de gobierno del PP, de lo que ha sido una experiencia nefasta para España”
Si lo que se pretendió con eliminarme judicialmente fue que no hubiera deseos de investigar casos de corrupción, se ha producido el efecto contrario”
“En el Estado español no se da un paso para que haya verdad, justicia y reparación de las víctimas del franquismo”
“Estoy de acuerdo en que no hubo investigación y que debió haberla [denuncias de torturas en Cataluña en 1992] y que debió profundizarse en ella. En lo único que yo no puedo reconocer responsabilidad ninguna es que esa investigación no correspondía al juzgado central de instrucción número 5”
“Hace demasiado tiempo que el gobierno está ausente de toda la dinámica que se está produciendo en Cataluña que, guste o no guste, existe y se está produciendo”
¿Referéndum en Cataluña? “Si eso es lo que correspondiera después de un debate exhaustivo y profundo, ¿por qué no?"
“Hacerlo [referéndum catalán] contrariamente a una legalidad de la que se participa es complejo, es muy complicado porque eso es lo que está determinando a una de las partes facilitar el acceso a vías represivas”
“La persecución de Julian Assange tiene una base estrictamente ideológico-política y de ataque a la libertad de información y de prensa”





A.B. - El libro, y especialmente el capítulo titulado "La caza", rezuma indignación por cómo se desarrolló toda la operación de acoso y derribo a que fue sometido cuando empezó a investigar el caso Gürtel y también cierta amargura e impotencia acerca de la politización de la justicia, la corrupción, la enorme dificultad que supone reformar España, regenerar sus estructuras... 


B.G. - ¿Rezuma indignación? Sí, evidentemente, mucha, pero no tanto rencor. Indignación por el hecho que era innecesario, se trataba de una investigación contra la corrupción [caso Gürtel] con todos los instrumentos que el Estado de derecho da y, sin embargo, la respuesta fue la de un planteamiento brutal del propio Partido Popular frente a todas las instituciones que ni siquiera estaban investigando a este partido. Estaban investigando a personas concretas y hechos delictivos, o presuntamente delictivos, concretos. Por tanto, la reacción tendría que haber sido exactamente la contraria. Eso da idea de que esta estructura política, en ese momento, no quería que la transparencia, que la regeneración, a través en este caso de una investigación judicial, pudiera entrar.


Rezuma también tristeza e incluso impotencia frente a hechos como estos, sí también, pero a la vez esperanza de que se pueden cambiar. Afortunadamente, creo que lo he dicho en alguna ocasión, si lo que se pretendió con eliminarme judicialmente fue que no hubiera deseos de investigar casos de corrupción, se ha producido el efecto contrario. Probablemente, porque no calcularon bien las fuerzas aquellos que estuvieron detrás de toda esa operación porque, fue tan brutal todo lo que aconteció, que los jueces, que ejercen su independencia, no pueden ser todos silenciados. Ahora bien, lo importante es que no tengan que ser los jueces los que purifiquen o limpien el país; es una labor de toda la sociedad, de la política, y acudir al derecho penal es el último estadio, que es precisamente el propio sentido del derecho penal. No acudir como primera medida, sino como última.



A.B. - Teniendo en cuenta los numerosos casos de corrupción política que ha habido en España y en Cataluña, con gobiernos del PP, del PSOE o CiU, ¿cree que es posible su erradicación? ¿No es la corrupción un fenómeno estructural, parte sustancial del propio sistema político?


B.G. - Yo creo que, a la hora de enfocar la corrupción, se puede hacer de varias formas. Hay quienes dicen que aceptar determinado grado de corrupción es necesario o imposible de evitar, y otros que la confrontación a través de la transparencia y la participación es la norma, el juego limpio. Yo me ubico, evidentemente, en este segundo ámbito. ¿Se puede? Sí, lo que ocurre es que hay que estar convencido de ello; no se puede banalizar la corrupción. Lo que ha pasado en España es que, durante mucho tiempo, no se tomaron en cuenta determinados elementos y decisiones que para mí eran fundamentales. Es decir, después de un régimen autoritario fascista, donde la corrupción era o podía ser la norma en sí misma, no hubo una respuesta, se continuó con prácticas similares y no es hasta 1994, con todos los escándalos de Filesa y demás, que se pone en marcha, después de una reacción en la que yo también tuve participación en ese momento desde el ámbito de la política, toda una regeneración a través de creación de instrumentos. Pero luego faltó esta convicción y no se desarrollaron, no se aplicaron.


Ha sido veinte años después cuando la eclosión de fenómenos nos ha puesto en la tesitura de decir: o aceptamos que esto es así o lo cambiamos. Creo que el poder judicial está haciendo ahora el papel que le corresponde. Falta la clase política, que también ha tomado iniciativas, pero creo que no suficientes porque hay elementos que todavía perviven. Es decir, el hecho en sí mismo de no reconocer lo que se está haciendo, como la misma señora De Cospedal dijo el otro día, como que cuestionaba el juicio de la Gürtel, como que tenía dudas de las garantías...。Hombre! Se pueden tener dudas de una persona, de dos...pero de un juicio oral público donde, con todas las garantías que tenemos en un país democrático, se va a dilucidar la responsabilidad penal, civil o lucrativa de una persona, debería tenerse confianza. Y si eso lo dice una persona que está imputada, bien, pero si lo dice un líder político, me preocupa mucho.


Yo creo que sí hay voluntad, pero tenemos que asumir que la corrupción es un elemento que está presente, que está muy arraigado y que tenemos que pasar de la banalización, del no dar miedo a ser corrupto a ser conscientes que sólo la transparencia, el buen hacer, la ética en la gestión pública es el camino. Se puede conseguir y al final reporta más beneficios.




A.B. - Usted fue procesado por abrir una investigación sobre los crímenes del franquismo y por ello fue condenado, luego absuelto. Dice en el libro que este juicio cierra definitivamente la posibilidad que en España se puedan investigar estos crímenes y se pueda poner fin a la impunidad...


B.G. - En España ha ocurrido un fenómeno impresionante, por lo negativo, respecto a otros países. Probablemente, en cuanto a dosis de impunidad respecto a crímenes de genocidio, de lesa humanidad, etc, nos podamos comparar a Turquía respecto al genocidio armenio, que todavía ni se reconoce. Pero es que España es el segundo país del mundo, después de Camboya, en número de desaparecidos. Y en España jamás se ha iniciado ninguna causa de investigación penal, ni siquiera en la revisión de los juicios sumarísimos a Ruano, Grimau o Puig Antich. No se ha removido absolutamente nada. Cuando en 2007 la ley de memoria histórica apenas tocó algunos aspectos para declarar ilegítimos esos juicios -no para anularlos-, para algunas vías de compensación y demás, el partido principal de la oposición en este momento, el PP, se abstuvo, es decir, no participó, no quiso que se hiciera una ley de memoria histórica.


Pero es que en 2011 se negó a seguir aplicándola y cuando judicialmente, en 2006, las víctimas toman las iniciativas -corresponde a mi juzgado-, yo intento iniciar esa investigación en 2008 y la respuesta fue fulminante por parte de la Audiencia Nacional, que archiva esa causa. Cuando se abrió para otros juzgados, la Fiscalía también solicitó el archivo. Incluso se inicia una causa contra el juez, contra mí, por haber iniciado esta investigación, con querellantes tan poco sospechosos de honestidad como Manos Limpias o incluso quienes habían formado parte de los victimarios, como Falange. Se me suspende de funciones, después se me absuelve pero diciendo “no vuelva a hacer usted eso, porque no”. Y, finalmente, el propio Tribunal Supremo decide, después de mi sentencia absolutoria, que no se vuelva a abrir ninguna investigación en este sentido. Entonces las víctimas quedan absolutamente desamparadas. 


Cuando se abre una puerta nueva con la jurisdicción universal en Argentina, la cooperación desde España a la querella contra el franquismo es no colaborar. Cuando algunos jueces comienzan a colaborar, la fiscal general del Estado emite una circular diciendo "absténganse de cooperar y no olviden que hubo un juez que lo hizo y se le abrió procedimiento penal". Es una negación, es la pura impunidad y, además, basándola en una ley de amnistía que ni siquiera se refería a este tipo de crímenes.


Por tanto, hoy en día, a pesar de la reclamación de las víctimas, de todos los organismos internacionales y de la lucha contra la impunidad que se hace incluso desde Parlamentos autonómicos, en el Estado español no se da un paso en ninguna de sus instituciones para que haya verdad, justicia y reparación de las víctimas del franquismo. Pero hay que seguir luchando, por eso pedimos una comisión de la verdad, por eso estamos haciendo todo lo imposible en los organismos internacionales (me refiero a la sociedad civil), por eso se está consiguiendo que en Parlamentos autonómicos haya votaciones a favor de la creación de una comisión de la verdad, como en Asturias o en Canarias a favor de la calificación de crímenes de lesa humanidad, en Cataluña por la nulidad de los juicios sumarísimos, una ley foral de la memoria histórica muy potente en Navarra, una ley de memoria democrática en Andalucía...pero falta desde el Estado y la pregunta es ¿por qué? Pues, evidentemente, porque hay un gobierno que no quiere ni oir hablar de memoria histórica porque dicen que esto no existe




A.B. - Sobre el episodio de las detenciones de independentistas catalanes en 1992, usted se sacude las responsabilidades sobre las torturas que denunciaron los detenidos, a quienes se mantuvo incomunicados en aplicación de la ley antiterrorista. El Tribunal Europeo de Derechos Humanos les dio la razón en una sentencia en que condenaba a España por no haber investigado estas denuncias. Veinticuatro años después, ¿sigue pensando que actuó correctamente?


B.G. - Hay que distinguir. Usted identifique independentistas, yo no le voy a quitar este título, pero a Terra Lliure se la investigaba por delitos de terrorismo y a las personas se les imputaba este tipo de hechos delictivos y, cuando aceptaron la conformidad de la sentencia, se hablaba de banda armada y no aparecía el término independentismo. Pero yo asumo que, evidentemente, era una forma de ejercicio de la violencia en cuya base estaba un sentimiento de lucha por la independencia de Cataluña. En la actuación judicial, en concreto la mía, había indicios más que suficientes, abundantes, de que la comisión próxima de atentados exigía una intervención. A mí se me facilitaron estos indicios, estos datos, y yo actué y ordené una serie de detenciones y, posteriormente, otras más. Por tanto, la aplicación de la legislación del momento y del Código Penal creo que se hizo conforme a derecho. En cuanto a las detenciones en sí mismas, es cierto que hubo denuncias, algunas en el momento de la declaración judicial, ante el juez central de instrucción número 5 en este caso, que fui yo, y otras con posterioridad.


A partir de este momento estas denuncias, en todos los casos, se plantearon ante la jurisdicción ordinaria, que correspondía, si no recuerdo mal, y creo que lo cito en el libro, al juzgado de instrucción número 22 de Madrid. ¿Por qué es esto así? Porque el juzgado central de instrucción tiene competencia para los delitos de terrorismo, pero no para la investigación de torturas. Sí para recibir las denuncias y, de hecho, en todas las declaraciones, al menos yo lo hacía, preguntaba por el trato recibido y ahí las personas detenidas enumeraban cuál había sido ese trato. Sistemáticamente, los médicos forenses emitían el dictamen correspondiente y decían si había indicio o no de que se hubieran practicado torturas o malos tratos. En todos los casos en los que estos informes fueron favorables, se dedujo el testimonio correspondiente y se remitió a la jurisdicción que correspondía. En este caso es cierto que no se hizo, pero ello no evitó la denuncia.


Por tanto, se recogieron las denuncias, se hicieron los informes y se presentaron las denuncias en el juzgado número 22 de Madrid. Lo que dice exactamente el Tribunal Europeo de Derechos Humanos en la sentencia de noviembre de 2004 es que considera que los elementos de prueba presentados por los demandantes no fundamentaban suficientemente las alegaciones. En consecuencia, dice el tribunal, no hubo violación del artículo 3 del Convenio [Europeo de Derechos Humanos, sobre la prohibición de la tortura]. Pero, sin embargo, sí dice a continuación que no hubo investigación suficiente, dice algo así como que hubo ausencia de una investigación profunda y efectiva sobre las alegaciones defendibles de los demandantes. Es decir, está reconociendo que podían ser creíbles y que no hubo investigación. 


Y yo estoy de acuerdo en que no hubo investigación y que debió haberla y que debió profundizarse en ella. En lo único en que yo no puedo reconocer responsabilidad ninguna es que esa investigación no correspondía al juzgado central de instrucción número 5. En este juzgado, y yo en particular, se recogió en la propia declaración de algunos de los detenidos los malos tratos. Gracias a que se recoge ahí, se puede empezar a investigar. Lo que ocurrió es que -y esa es una autocrítica en general al propio sistema judicial español, del que todos formamos parte-, todo el tema relacionado con malos tratos, torturas en la aplicación de la legislación antiterrorista no fue objeto de atención durante mucho tiempo como debería haber sido.


Y eso generó unas dinámicas que, en algunos casos, contribuyeron a deslegitimar la propia lucha contra el terrorismo, pero también se investigaron. En mi caso concreto, no es eludir responsabilidad, es contar lo que ocurrió. Mi postura ha sido absolutamente beligerante en contra de la tortura, los malos tratos. De hecho, la creación de un mecanismo de control de la detención incomunicada a partir de lo que Naciones Unidas llamó el protocolo Garzón, es decir yo autoricé a partir de este protocolo que médicos designados por los familiares pudieran ver durante la detención a las personas detenidas. Eso es lo que mandaban las normativas internacionales y lo que eso supuso para mí, curiosamente, fue una campaña, un ataque impresionante por parte de algunos medios de comunicación y varias denuncias contra mí porque decían los médicos forenses que yo les ponía en riesgo porque podían ser identificados por los médicos que designaban las familias o porque me iba a cargar la lucha contra el terrorismo. En definitiva, yo creo que se contribuyó a que se dignificara y se clarificara y hubiera menos margen y además de la petición que desde el año 1999 venía haciendo de derogación de la ley antiterrorista.


Bueno, esos son los hechos. Lógicamente cada cual lo puede valorar como sea. Pero, desde mi punto de vista, creo que desde que comencé a investigar a los GAL hasta mis últimos días en la Audiencia Nacional y hasta el día de hoy sigo defendiendo la limpieza y el respeto absoluto al Estado de derecho y cualquier quebranto del mismo hay que perseguirlo.



A.B. - Hablando de limpieza, asistimos en Cataluña a una judicialización extrema de la vida política. El proceso independentista se combate con recursos ante los tribunales, con juicios y condenas. Peor aún, con maniobras desde las cloacas del Estado fabricando casos falsos contra los dirigentes independentistas. ¿Es ésta la forma de resolver los conflictos políticos?


B.G. - No, no. Lo he dicho muy claro y lo digo con muchísima contundencia. Creo que, desde mi humilde punto de vista, se está cometiendo un grave error al utilizar a las instituciones constitucionales y de Estado en interpretaciones que pueden ser defendibles (el Código Penal y demás) pero que, desde luego, no son razonables en el sentido que utilizar el Código Penal para substituir lo que debe ser el debate y los argumentos políticos es muy grave. Y, además, desarrollar prácticas de juego sucio que, si se llegan a demostrar, serían gravísimas (ya tuvimos una experiencia muy nefasta en esa guerra sucia contra el terrorismo y tenemos experiencias internacionales también gravísimas). Por tanto, no es de recibo que no haya ese debate político, que no haya ese diálogo.


Hace demasiado tiempo que el gobierno está ausente de toda la dinámica que se está produciendo en Cataluña que, guste o no guste, existe y se está produciendo. Y, desde luego, no es el Código Penal el que se tiene que tomar la voz y la palabra. Como decía antes, el derecho penal es un derecho de mínimos, se acude a él cuando no hay otro remedio. Pero el problema es que aquí no se ha debatido, se han establecido no ya líneas rojas, sino muros infranqueables para no debatir un tema que está ahí y que se va a quedar. Yo no puedo estar a favor o en contra de la independencia, todos debemos estar a favor de lo que es un derecho reconocido en la Carta de Naciones Unidas, en la Declaración Universal de Naciones Unidas, el derecho a la autodeterminación, y luchar y debatir políticamente sobre ello. Yo siempre he dicho que la única limitación que pongo es el uso de la violencia, que para mi es inaceptable en una democracia.


A partir de ahí, si no hay ese debate político, el Código Penal no va a resolver esa cuestión, sino que la va a exacerbar mucho más.



A.B. - En el libro explica con detalle su tormentoso paso por la política y su ruptura con Felipe González. ¿Qué opinión le merece el hecho que el PSOE se disponga a apoyar un gobierno del partido más manchado por la corrupción?



B.G. - Yo diría que mi paso por la política fue más bien traumático. Fue bastante corto, once meses, aunque nunca once meses han dado tanto de si porque, cuando empezó la investigación de Gürtel, todavía se me imputaba ser un juez socialista, no sé, como una especie de mancha, de estigma. Si dices que eres un juez de derechas, ¿eso es bueno o qué?. Es un poco absurda esta catalogación en función de ideologías para la justicia cuando nadie se puede hacer una lobotomía para no ser ideológicamente lo que es. Otra cosa es que abdiques de tu imparcialidad.


En cuanto al PSOE, a mi me da mucha pena que, a través de una abstención, se vaya a propiciar un gobierno por cuatro años más del PP. El PP lo respeto, siempre que se respeten a sí mismos, siempre que haya unos mecanismos de transparencia que sean aplicables a cualquiera de los partidos políticos como estructuras básicas de un Estado democrático. Pero al PP y a sus máximos responsables no les han pasado factura todavía los casos de corrupción. El argumento de decir que se expulsa del partido a quien ha dimitido de los cargos es muy pobre y no es asumible como única respuesta. El decir "ahora somos diferentes", bien, pero antes no y el antes es la base del ahora. Para mí es incomprensible que se siga votando mayoritariamente a una estructura que no ha demostrado transparencia y que ha banalizado la corrupción. Por tanto, también habría que hacer esta reflexión.


¿Y el PSOE? Pues ha tomado esta decisión, se argumenta que en función de la gobernabilidad, pero yo no puedo asumir tranquilamente, pacífica y bondadosamente cuatro años más, con uno de interregno, de un gobierno nada más que en funciones, lo que ha sido una experiencia para España nefasta en todo el tema del desarrollo territorial de España como pais plural, de nacionalidades diversas; de lo que ha sido la economía, la reducción a unos índices de pobreza y de desigualdad muy graves y que nos sigue poniendo casi a la cabeza de Europa. No lo puedo asumir y no lo entiendo, por tanto comprendo más posturas como la del PSC en Cataluña, que dicen "vamos a votar que no", porque eso es la coherencia.


¿Que la alternativa son unas elecciones y peores resultados? Pues lo que hay que hacer es combatir para que los resultados sean mejores. Pero bueno, eso lo dice alguien que no milita en ningún partido político y que tiene la libertad de crítica.



A.B. - El PSOE justifica también la abstención en aras a la unidad nacional...


B.G. - Yo soy muy claro en eso, es decir, cada uno puede tener un planteamiento de la unidad de España. Yo soy de los que opinan sobre la diversidad de España. Unos hablan de Estado español, otros de país, unos quieren autodeterminación, otros independencia...es decir, lo que sí es evidente es que estamos en un sistema democrático en que todas las posturas se deben defender. No hay más límite, vuelvo a decir, que la violencia y ni siquiera las fronteras territoriales son algo inalterable por siempre jamás.



A.B. - ¿Habría que celebrarse un referéndum de independencia en Cataluña?


B.G. - Si eso es lo que correspondiera después de un debate exhaustivo y profundo, ¿por qué no? Yo, cuando fue el referéndum en su momento dije que me parece muy bien que lo haya, lo único es que haya las garantías correspondientes, que sea participativo, que se expliquen las posturas, que se debata , que se profundice y, dentro de la legalidad y si hay que modificarla se modifica, se pueda expresar. Lo hemos visto en otros países y no pasa absolutamente nada. En fin, es una postura más universalista que particularista pero es que pienso así. 



A.B. - ¿Y un referéndum unilateral?



B.G. - Vuelvo a decir que, en cualquier ámbito, hacer cualquier acción sin violencia es defendible. Hacerla contrariamente a una legalidad de la que se participa es complejo, es muy complicado porque eso es lo que está determinando a una de las partes facilitar el acceso a vías represivas. Entonces, es un camino peligroso para ambos. Yo soy de los que opina que es necesario, antes de cualquier iniciativa de cualquier tipo, es el diálogo. En España, en este tema, no ha habido diálogo abierto entre las fuerzas políticas, es algo que está pendiente. Mi opinión es que, antes de cualquier otro planteamiento, eso es lo que hace falta. No estoy de acuerdo con la postura negacionista y sospecho que va a ser muy complicada cualquier decisión unilateral.



A.B. - Le quedan todavía unos años de inhabilitación judicial. ¿A qué se dedica ahora? ¿Sigue defendiendo a Julian Assange? 



B.G. - Sí, si, soy el coordinador de la defensa de Julian Assange y estamos ahora en un momento muy complejo, muy delicado por las publicaciones de Wikileaks sobre la campaña electoral norteamericana. Están teniendo trascendencia y demuestran que la persecución de Julian Assange tiene una base estrictamente ideológico-política y de ataque a la libertad de información y de prensa. Por esa razón, continúo defendiéndolo como siempre y porque estoy convencido de que, al margen de la excusa de su reclamación por Suecia frente a la cual no tenemos ningún problema en atenderla, subyace una operación mucho mayor que trata, en definitiva, de silenciar a Wikileaks, lo cual es muy grave



A.B. - ¿Tiene intención de reincorporarse a sus funciones judiciales cuando haya terminado  la inhabilitación?



B.G. - Cuando termine mi inhabilitación, teóricamente no tengo más que solicitar la reincorporación porque, aunque esté inhabilitado por once años, no hay expulsión, porque no puede haberla, de la carrera judicial. Sigo siendo juez y, cuando cumpla mi sanción, si así lo deseo, tomaré posesión en el momento que pueda y después ya veremos, quedan todavía poco menos que cinco años. 




































Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Interview with Susan George

Political and social activist

Published in El Punt Avui newspaper in April 28, 2016

http://www.elpuntavui.cat/politica/article/17-politica/962388-lobama-ha-defraudat-moltes-esperancesr.html





PROFILE

Susan George (Akron, Ohio, 1934) is an American/French political and social scientist and activist. She has written several books on global social justice, third world poverty, underdevelopment and debt, including the acclaimed "Lugano Report:On Preserving Capitalism in the Twenty-First Century"  (1999,) in which she explains her vision of the way the winners in the globalisation game profit from poverty.

Susan George was in Barcelona last week participating in the 4th edition of the "International seminar on sharing the planet: building a biocivilization".


Full version

"The TTIP is a huge threat against the entire democratic structure that we have built up and particularly the freedoms that we have gained since the war"

"Austerity policies in Europe do exactly what they were set up to do, which is to transfer money from the people to the 1%: they work very well!"

"Our economy fails because people don't have a dime, they don't have an euro to spend on anything but the rent, the groceries and shoes for the children, the basic necessities. But again, this is policy, that's why we have to get control of the State, it's the only way to change"

"Bernie Sanders is a real social democrat. He has a perfectly sound programme: he wants health insurance for everybody, which Obamacare did not accomplish, and free tuition at the public universities. He has a perfectly feasable programme and who pays for it"


A.B. - Last week US President Barack Obama and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel called jointly for a TTIP deal (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) to be concluded this year. However, since TTIP negotiations began, the process has been secretive and undemocratic. Social organizations denounce that the TTIP means an assault on European and US societies by transnational corporations. What's your view about this treaty? Do you think that it will be finally approved and implemented?

S.G. - There is a large movement in Europe which will do everything possible, everything we can do as a civil society, to prevent it from being approved and to give the leadership the idea that they will be dead if they pass this thing. Since Germany is the strongest of the societies against the TTIP and since Germany is also the largest and most powerful European state, I think we've got a chance. The movement is also growing in the United States although for the moment they are concentrating on the TTP (Pacific treaty) which has got most of the same features as the TTIP.

So, I certainly hope we can defeat it. I know the background of it. In my book "Los Usurpadores", I explore the origins of the TTIP and it was entirely planned by transnational corporations. They've been planning it since the early 1990s. Because we defeated the MAI (Multilateral Agreement on Investment), they have been trying to get something like that ever since that was defeated. So they got together within the transatlantic business dialogue and then that has morphed into a much larger and powerful structure called the Transatlantic Economic Council, which is political. They say on their website: 'We are a political organization and our goal is to harmonize (which means merge) the economies of the United States and Europe'.

And I don't know any European who ever voted to merge the economy with the United States, which means being dominated by the United States because we are very split-up, we don't have a federal government, so we would be totally dominated and that is what the TTIP is going for now. I think it is a huge threat to democracy. They are going to threaten the judiciary. I'm sure about tribunals of private lawyers who will decide, with no appeal, that a state has committed a crime because it's costly, you have to pay if they pass a law which some companies can show has been a threat to their present or future profits.

So, threatening the judiciary, threatening the legislative branch, because they want to take over regulatory collaboration and that sounds good, but what it means is that it would be the corporations together that would be regulating and since for them every extra test, every extra safeguard for the public or for the environement means it costs them a little more, so they want the lowest common denominator on regulation.

I'll give you an example: The Europeans have banned 1,200 chemicals under the REACH directive. The Americans, in the same period of time, have banned 5 or 6. So there are lots of dangerous chemicals in the environment and in products and things you don't even know that are there in the United States because they don't require labelling.

It's also a blow against the executive because if a country, especially a smaller country like Slovakia or a weaker country less rich than France or Germany or even Spain, is threateaned with a whole lot of lawsuits they would say 'Well, I would like to do something about the environment, I would like to pass a law..." This happened in Spain. Spaniards have given up on subsidies for solar plants. They were threatened with lawsuits, and the Spanish really I think went too far, but instead of having a climate-friendly law, we have more fossil fuels. And that is what they will insist on and they have so much money that they can do it.

Chevron won a case like that for drilling in Ecuador. Chevron is a very large oil company and they said their trial was about drilling in a protected area for oil and the Ecuadorian government said 'No' and they said 'Yes' because when we came here we had the reasonable expectation that we could drill anywhere in the country. So they won. And they won an award of 1,8 billion dollars. So Ecuador is not exactly a rich country.

So it's a threat against the entire democratic structure that we have built up and particularly the freedoms that we have gained since the war and, for a country like Spain, which only began to do this after the death of Franco, I think it could be devastating.

Explain this to the Spaniards and the Catalans so that they can react against it because, unless we get the people, the corporations and our governments are for it, altough France and Germany have both said that if it contains the private tribunals system they will stop it. But who knows, we never know if they are lying or not. I don't believe what they say.

A.B. - Since the last global financial crisis began, Europeans have been living under the austerity policies dictated by Germany and the European Comission. But the economy is not growing and the national debts (and the social inequalities) are increasing. What should happen to realise that these policies don't work?

S.G. - They do exactly what they were set up to do, which is to transfer money from the people to the 1%: they work very well!. That's why they privatize everything, that was the whole point of the same policies in Latin America. Every year the World Bank publishes pages and pages of companies that have been privatised. There are always 1,400-1,500 of them.

Look at Greece. Greece got a memorandum saying "you have to privatize this, this, this and that", whether it was profitable or not. They privatized the lottery because the lottery was bringing in half a billion euros every year, which is quite a nice return, and nobody cared, they have to sell it at whatever was offered and what was offered was quite a small sum and they had to sell it anyway.

They sold all the regional airports to a German company and there were many more things on that list. So it works very well. The people suffer but it looks very well for the policies that work, that are dictated. So, of course it's terrible and, as Yannis Varoufakis says, they were going after Greece because it was the easiest target, but now it's going to be Spain's turn and they are ultimately looking at France because France is pretty heavily indebted. And already France is close to a 100% of GDP of indebtedness and that's the danger point.

And François Hollande has just signed up for this terrible labour law which is exactly what Medef (the enterprise directors) wants. They wanted this law and they have been going for it for many years. So he signed up for it and he calls that checking a box but now, fortunately, people are reacting, they are in the streets, in the Place de la République in the Nuit Debout and we don't know what is going to happen, but for the first time since I've lived in France which is nearly 60 years, the students and the trade unions have come together in a common programme and it wasn't even like that in 1968.

So, that is an example of how the governments check the box that's on the European list, that it's almost identical to what the European Comission was asking for. So this is going to continue so long as we don't elect governments which can just say "No". We need civilian disobedience on the part of governments. So here it's Podemos, obviously

A.B. - Let's look at the current situation in Europe: economic crisis, rising unemployment, the threat of djihadist terrorism, the fears before the flow of migrants and refugees, the rise of far-right parties...What future do you foresee for Europe?

S.G. - I think that depends on the way our governments and Europe go. If they continue to govern only in favour of transnational corporations and the very richest people and do everything they can to increase that wealth and everything they can to deprive people, of course we try PSOE, we try PP and nothing happens and so le'ts try the far-right.

We are in deep danger. Shortly, Marine Le Pen is going to be one of the two run-off candidates in the presidential elections next year and you have got elections in June. I don't know who is going to win those but I'm certainly hoping that Podemos wins because I think that that's the only way, because is the only party that would challenge Europe and they have to have the political strength to do that. I think it's the only way to avoid all your point in your question

A.B. - The so-called Panama papers are the latest big scandal concerning capitalism. There is the feeling that corruption is part of the system and that rich people will always manage to keep their money safe and to get richer and richer...
S.G. - That depends on the law and the law depends on the State. "The Guardian" announced that on the 9th of May they are going to publish a huge lot of the Panama papers which have not yet been published and in which they will identify individuals, they will identify corporations and we are going to have some fun there, that will be very interesting.

Yesterday the trial of a young man called Antoine Deltour began in Luxemburg. He was the whistleblower, he was the man who exposed the Luxleaks and Jean-Claude Juncker, our beloved president, was prime minister during that whole period that they were making these agreements with transnational corporations. So he organised it, you can't say that he wasn't aware...So should he be on trial or should Antoine Deltour be on trial?

He didn't make any money of it, he didn't ask for money, he just wanted this to become public because he thought it was very bad for democracy, which is true, and he gave the papers to a French journalist of the France-2, which is a public television channel, and he denounced for anything and now he is threatened with 5 years in prison and a fine of over a milion euros. You couldn't even make that in salaries in 15, 20, 30 years...


A.B. It's clear, then, that there is something that doesn't work...

S.G. - Again, it works! It depends who is in charge and what they want. For the last 30 years we had been in the neoliberal period, which was set up by the United States and then travelled everywhere in the world. And now, all the governments are neoliberal either because they had to become that because of the IMF or other pressures, or because they really believe it, like the Germans. The Germans are perfectly ok: they are exporting and they have large surpluses and they never stop to consider that if one has surpluses, somebody else has to have deficits

Neoliberalism is their doctrine: the market should be unfettered, regulations should be kept to absolute minimum, reduce taxes on the rich because then they will invest, which they do, but they invest in the financial markets. Why bother to sit around to invest in a factory? I can make much more money in the financial markets and much faster. So, yes, they do invest because they are the ones who have got the cash.

Our economy fails because people don't have a dime, they don't have an euro to spend on anything but the rent, the groceries and shoes for the children, the basic necessities. But again, this is policy, that's why we have to get control of the State, it's the only way to change. We can protest all we like and that helps, and that's good, and the movement is coming together on that. It's very important that social movements come together politically.


A.B. - Even though he probably won't be the next Democratic candidate to the White House, how do you explain the success of Bernie Sanders because, in a way, he has succeeded, hasn't he?

S.G. - Oh yes, because when he started, nobody outside Vermont, New Hampshire and a few other political junkies, people like me, knew who he was. He appeals to young people because he's a social democrat if you like. He says he's a democratic socialist but he is really a social democrat with a real social democratic programme of hospitals, schools.

He has a perfectly sound programme, he wants health insurance for everybody, which Obamacare did not accomplish; he wants free tuition at the public universities and still be private universities, there will still be private hospitals, but he has a perfectly feasable programme and who pays for it, by going back to a United States like in the 1960s and early 1970s.

Nobody remembers that Eisenhower, a Republican president, was taxing the top income slice of the income tax law. The top slice was at 90%. I don't see the point of having 62 people in the world who have the same amount of assets as one half of the world population.

Sanders is talking simple common sense and the Americans have been very slow. They haven't travelled, so they don't know that in Europe it's perfectly normal to have a free university and so when the kids knew this they loved it. It's partly the all left resurgence, because there wasn't anybody to vote for before. People voted for Obama, they had high hopes and he disappointed most of those hopes.






















Thursday, March 10, 2016

Interview with Martin Kettle

Associate editor of The Guardian newspaper

Published in El Punt Avui newspaper in March 10, 2016

http://elpuntavui.cat/politica/article/17-politica/948276-lel-lbrexit-perjudicaria-mes-la-ue-que-el-regne-unitr.html



PROFILE

Martin Kettle (1949) is an associate editor of the Guardian and writes on British, European and American politics, as well as the media, law and music


Full version

"In a Brexit scenario, Britain will be the biggest loser in the short term, but the EU in the long term. Britain may be a bad European partner but the loss of Britain would damage the credibility of the EU project more than the optimists imagine"

"The anti-Europeans are obsessives. Many on the right cannot quite believe that a Conservative prime minister wants to stay in Europe. They hate Cameron, and they do not want him to stay as prime minister after the referendum, even if he wins it"

"Corbyn and his supporters have a fairly clear democratic socialist project, but it is the same very doctrinaire project they had in the 1970s. Much has changed since then, and Corbyn gioves little impression that he understands these changes"

"The Scottish nationalists will only try to call a second independence referendum when they are confident of winning it. That is not true at the moment"


A.B. - Finally, britons will decide in a referendum whether they want to leave or to stay in the European Union. Regardless of the outcome, how would you explain this historical detachment from Europe?

M.K. - Historically, I would say that Britain has always been engaged with Europe. After all, Britain fought land wars in Europe from the era of Louis XIV to the era of Hitler — and England did the same for centuries before Britain was created. But there was always an isolationist undertow, especially in the era of empire. That's hardly surprising on an island that conquered large parts of the globe. Even so, when Britons had a referendum on Europe in 1975, we voted 67% to 33% for Europe, so the detachment has to be seen in context. I think the modern detachment from the EU is underpinned by the myth of 1940 — that Britain stood alone against fascism and defeated Hitler — a myth in which Margaret Thatcher passionately believed, especially towards the end of her career. It also has much to do with Britain's newspapers, which are often owned by anti-Europeans who do not pay taxes here and which have been fanatically anti-Europe. But the detachment of 2016 has more to do with the eurozone failure and the migration issue than with any deep-seated belief among British voters that all our problems can be laid at Europe's door.

Having said that, I think there is an English dimension to British detachment. England (I exclude London from this) is just as fed up as other countries in Europe with the sacrifices that ordinary people have had to make in the aftermath of the financial crisis and just as anxious about migration and low wages too. This manifests itself in different ways in different countries, as Spain knows. In England it has manifested itself as anti-European feeling, mainly through votes for Ukip. In 1975 England was the most pro-European part of Britain, much more pro-European than Scotland, for instance. Today the positions are reversed.


A.B. - PM David Cameron received more support for his defence of staying in the European Union from opposition lawmakers in the Labour Party and Scottish National Party than from his own, which has been divided over EU membership for decades. Do you think that the referendum is going to split even more the Conservative Party?

M.K. - One should never underestimate the will of the Conservative party for power. They have an astonishing historical record of recovery and adaptability. Most Tories think they can withstand the splits and tensions over Europe and resume their domination of UK politics after the referendum. I think that could be correct, but the splits are deep and serious all the same. The anti-Europeans are obsessives. Many on the right cannot quite believe that a Conservative prime minister wants to stay in Europe. They hate Cameron, and they do not want him to stay as prime minister after the referendum, even if he wins it. The opposition parties are all pro-Europe, but Labour remains more divided than you may think. A lot of Labour voters have no great love for the EU, for a mixture of chauvinistic and class reasons, and because they have been on the receiving end of a mass of anti-EU propaganda for generations/


A.B. - Who's the biggest loser in a Brexit scenario, the UK or the European Union?
M.K. - Britain in the short term, but the EU in the long term. Britain may be a bad European partner but the loss of Britain would damage the credibility of the EU project more than the optimists imagine.


A.B. - Compared with other major European countries, English economy is performing relatively well even though distance between rich and poor has increased over the last years. Do you think that the new global recession can exacerbate social inequality in the UK?

M.K. - I think that it can exacerbate that inequality and it is already doing so. That is why so many middle class voters are very sceptical about Europe here in Britain, because they see their security being eroded and they think it might be better outside the EU. I think they are wrong, but voters feel that politicians have let them down in many countries, including Britain, so the anti-EU mood can be seen in this light.


A.B. - After Ed Milliband's defeat in the 2015 elections and the unexpected rise of Jeremy Corbyn, has the Labour Party a clear project for the coming years? Given the internal divisions in the party, dou you foresee a lasting leadership for Corbyn?

M.K. - Corbyn and his supporters have a fairly clear democratic socialist project, but it is the same very doctrinaire project they had in the 1970s. Much has changed since then, and Corbyn gioves little impression that he understands these changes. He has tapped into two important demographics: young people who are disenchanted with traditional politics, and older middle-class left-wingers who like the idea of Labour as a traditional socialist party — Corbyn himself embodies this second group. Their opponents remain in disarray, so I think that Corbyn will remain leader as long as he does not he lose important elections and there is no credible alternative. Both these are certainly the case at the moment.


A.B. - Scots voted no in the 2014 independence referendum under the promise to get more powers if they stayed in the Union. Is british government delivering its promises of more self-government? Can we expect a second independence referendum in the short term?

M.K. - The Scottish nationalists remain in command of Scottish politics. They will win another big victory in the Scottish elections in May. But they will only try to call a second independence referendum when they are confident of winning it. That is not true at the moment. Remember that the 2014 referendum was a clear defeat for separatism by 55% to 45% in conditions that were more favourable to independence than they seem now. How much has changed since then? The nationalist mood remains strong, but the oil price has fallen steeply and the economic case against independence feels stronger now than in 2014. Many nationalists hope that if Britain votes to leave the EU, and Scotland votes to stay, this will trigger a second referendum. Nicola Sturgeon will come under a lot of pressure in that event, but I think she will be cautious because the SNP cannot afford to lose two out of two. A second defeat would set the cause back a long way, as happened in Quebec after the second defeat of independence. In any case, I still think the UK will vote to remain in the EU, so I don't myself think a second independence vote is very likely very soon.